We’ll also highlight powerful countries, ideologies, influential leaders, and ongoing global conflicts that are shaping the current landscape of the international community across the globe today. Terrorism. This may take a longer time to eventuate, but is inevitable. By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies. The Middle East is in chaos and the old order is breaking down. T HEIR BUDGETS don’t add up anymore. The book is not without bright spots, however, as it suggests that with its unique characteristics, the Middle East could help with the solution to these issues. Peace Process . Copyright 2019. Oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa region are expected to suffer a $270 billion slump in oil revenues this year, according to the latest projections from the International Monetary Fund. Today oil supplies about 40% of the world’s energy and 96% of its transportation energy. Well, the majority of the Middle East’s oil comes from just six countries Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates produce more than 25 million barrels a day But despite the region’s oil heavy focus, the country of Bahrain has already become their first post-oil economy, Bahrain stands as a model for other countries, as they’ve never had much oil to boost the economy There is instead an emphasis on banking, tourism, manufacturing, and construction In fact, Bahrain is a main financial center for all the surrounding oil money, and their success is partially due to a unique niche: Islamic banking Islamic or halal banking, is simply banking that follows sharia law, and for many religious people in the Middle East, it is a necessity In particular it prevents usury, or the charging of excessive interest for loans, which is prohibited in the Quran, It also does not allow investment in things like pork, alcohol, or tobacco, as those too are prohibited The demand for this sort of specific care has led to significant financial growth for Bahrain and other countries like the United Arab Emirates Saudi Arabia, which still sees around three quarters of their revenue from oil, has begun to diversify the output, and works to export minerals like aluminum and gold to eventually replace oil Additionally, many Middle Eastern powers are investing in alternative energies Saudi Arabia is already setting itself up to provide solar and nuclear power to the entire Gulf Coast, And while all these countries are looking for lucrative income replacement, the richest of the rich are actually investing in other countries Qatar, which has the highest GDP per capita in the world, recently promised to invest $15 billion dollars in Asia, with about $200 million dollars worth of property purchases in India alone But since the Middle East has spent much of the 20th century raking in oil wealth, there is considerably worry about the future for the youth As extremely high paying oil jobs transition into a more transit, financial, and service industry many fear that oil-funded government programs will end Saudi Arabia provides free education and healthcare, with no taxation. The neo-medievalism in the Middle East is a serious possibility in the form of deep chaos, with many contending sub-state groups ruling overlapping geographies with no clear border. A short answer is rarely enough for many questions; however, in this case “no” is the answer to several such questions. This is a… Algeria: Will the Failure to Reform Economically further Fuel Islamism? When the sun sets on oil The Middle East and Russia are ill-prepared for a low-carbon future. Instability and revolution, impact of popular protests across Middle East oil producing nations. The fundamentals of future energy demand look good for Middle East oil producers. Learn how your comment data is processed. Digging up old…. Four risk factors stand out: For any other material published on this website; you may copy the content to individual third parties for their personal use, but only if you acknowledge the website as the source of the material and place a link. Saudi Arabia without oil With the price of Brent Crude less than $20 , Mohammed bin Salman is about to find out what happens when the world does not need his oil. Particularly economies like India over the next ten to 15 years,” he says. Desperate for change, growing numbers of people … Published July 31st, 2000 - 02:00 GMT (MEBG) - The following ar excerpts from a speech delivered by … All Rights Reserved. What Was The KGB And Why Was It So Feared. INSIGHT:The future of the oil industry in the Middle East. U.S. Policy. How did regional actors fail with billions and billions of dollars of oil revenue? (adsbygoogle=window.adsbygoogle||[]).push({}); Home » The World » Can The Middle East Survive Without Oil? Military and Security. The Middle East Crisis And Oil Price Expectations – Analysis July 7, 2019 July 7, 2019 Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) 0 Comments Alternate Future of the Middle East - Episode 1 - Change - Duration: 8:30. Without decisive economic reforms, the richest Middle Eastern states could exhaust their net financial wealth by 2034 as the region becomes a net debtor, the fund projects. NowThisWorld Developed Western countries have made a serious transformation in terms of alternative energy resources. The West is about to enter a new phase of industrial revolution; many call it the fourth industrial revolution. Yergin, a long-time believer that oil demand will flatten in the middle 2030s, is sticking to his guns. 0, As oil prices continue to fall to around $40 a barrel, many oil-dependent nations are seeing their main source of profit drying up One particularly frightening report from the International Monetary Fund stated that most Middle Eastern countries could run out of money in just five years, But the oil-rich Middle East has spent significant wealth on trying to find new sources of income once the petroleum economy becomes unprofitable Some countries have already begun to shift their economies away from oil production So, can the Middle East survive without oil? The Arabs had just launched a surprise attack on Israel. Which Countries Have The Best Sex Education? The World How Powerful Is The Organization Of Islamic Cooperation? There are, however, several big developments on the horizon that have significant potential to affect the outcomes of 2020 and the future of the Middle East Oil and Gas … NowThis World. Rabinowitz says that over the … Arab and Islamic Politics. In terms of oil demand, much depends on the course of economies. This Is the Moment That Decides the Future of the Middle East If the United States is done fighting for Saudi Arabia’s oil, it's done fighting for the entire region. 08 June 2017. Except as permitted under the policies of the related news agencies, no part of this website may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, communicated or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission. Today, the Middle East is part of the global agenda not because of oil but because of the security threats it generates such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Without oil, several Middle Eastern countries would face enormous difficulties in sustaining political order. This is a dramatic downturn that will aggravate existing economic and humanitarian challenges and raise already-high poverty levels. Issues. “I think people are making very strong statements about peak demand without enough analytical foundation. How This Japanese Town Produces Almost No Trash, Why France Is Turning Against Its President. As oil prices continue to wallow at lows not seen for more than decade, petroleum exporting countries in the Middle East are looking to reform their … Arab-Israeli Relations. No Arab oil … The irony is that many Middle Eastern states are still yet to enter the second or third. Oil, gas and sunlight are perhaps the three defining characteristics of the Gulf states and the wider Middle East. If this is the scenario, stable countries with alternative resources like Iran (and maybe Turkey) would find great opportunities. Government policy changes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia. Diamondic Mapping 5,512 views https://www.nowthisworld.net/can-the-middle-east-survive-without-oil Oil ministers fro. Energy and Economics. With new opportunities and projects surfacing nearly every day in the Middle East Oil and Gas sector, the ever-changing market is now accustomed to a dynamic pace. I am afraid, if realized, this negative strategy would be very bad news for those who aspire to democratization in the region.GÖKHAN BACIK [Cihan/Today's Zaman]. That money was simply used to subsidize the gaps of authoritarian political systems for decades. It was again oil that determined the strategic value of the Middle East in global politics. Compared with the high-technological products of developed Western states, commodity-trading prices are likely to continue at low levels. The moment you have lost all your money, you would feel the cold.Oil prices may rise again. The effects of the 2020 COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak and the oil price crash could significantly harm regional growth, while in the longer term, the deceleration in Chinese expansion and the prospect of stagnating global oil demand suggest a future of generally lower oil prices and hence a slower Middle Eastern economy. However, it would never generate a long-standing system. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Yemen and Syria are major producer of oil in the world. In a sense, oil determined the destiny of the Arab states in the region.Did the Arab world make use of this natural gift properly? Equally critical, did the Arabs use those huge revenues to transform their economies? Oman needs it to hit $87. All they see is a relatively if not absolutely weaker West propping up their enemies, Israel, dictators, the Kurds, even now Iran. So, what did happen to all the oil revenue? Indeed, oil has been the basis of the regional economy. Within another decade, their total non-oil wealth would also be exhausted, the IMF said in the report prepared by a team of its Middle East and Central Asia specialists as well as the research department. In the 19th edition of the Decision 2020 Report, Hoover fellows examine the future of US policy in the Middle East, especially in light of the shifting domestic attitudes regarding America’s commitments to the region, the US position as a net oil exporter, the peace deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, and geostrategic challenges that include emerging state What Countries Have Tried Universal Basic Income? Mehdi Varzi argues that OPEC members need to address the question of how they intend to exploit their massive oil reserves as the world gets weaned away from oil. Democracy and Reform. | NowThis World. Future projects in the Middle East Oil and Gas sector. The gist of the problem is not the oil price. The answer to this critical question is linked to the answer to several other questions: Did the Arabs use oil revenue to create a democratic regime? In a Middle East with no oil, there will be two key assets: Institutional strength and economic production that does not depend on oil. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. | NowThis World, Planting New Roots in the U.S. | NowThis World, What’s Going on in Sudan? Skip to main content The Washington Institute for Near East Policy Menu ... Middle East. Global demand for energy is projected to rise at an average rate of about 1.5 per cent a year until 2050, driven by population growth that is expected to see the number of people in the world ballooning to about 10 billion by 2050, up from about 6 billion people today. | NowThis World, The Rise of Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu | NowThis World, Israel’s Nation-State Law Explained | NowThis World, New Zealand’s Push for Gun Reform, Explained | NowThis World, The Rise and Fall of Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi Explained | NowThis World. “The end of hostilities in the Middle East will give rise to a new international institution, established to ensure a more equitable distribution of scarce resources to prevent and contain future resource wars at least in the foreseeable two decades. It would only ever work as long as you had the necessary amount of money. NowThis World is dedicated to bringing you topical explainers about the world around you. Search Policy Analysis. Middle East produces 31% of total oil of the world, valued at $325 billion and though most of the oil producing companies are state owned but there are significant numbers of companies producing oil through joint venture programs. Historically, Middle East did not exist. Sustaining authoritarianism with money is equal to burning paper money to warm up a house. Which Countries Recognize a Third Gender? If the United States no longer needs access to Middle East oil under any foreseeable circumstances, then the priority Washington assigns to the region will … In this sense, the Middle East will resemble the Europe of the post-Roman Empire that is known traditionally as the medieval order. Each week we’ll be exploring current stories in international news, by examining the facts, providing historical context, and outlining the key players involved. 18 May 2017. Inequalities of wealth and wealth distribution in future by governments keen to maintain political power. don't be stupid -- THE GOV SHOULD NOT BE SAYING THEY ARE SORRY FOR THINGS LONG AGO. One may add water as a third.Will the West be as interested in the region as it has been in the past century? Close List of All Regions and Issues Close. “Egyptian troops have crossed the Suez Canal,” an … It Existed in the form of small states. Link between oil wealth and local unemployment. The fall of oil prices energized various futuristic theories about the future of the oil-rich Middle Eastern countries.No doubt, oil has been the key word in analyzing all of Middle Eastern history since the 20th century. So even if those rich countries are able to jumpstart alternative revenue sources, young residents will likely have less job security, fewer social benefits, and they’ll have to work much harder than the current generation And before a post-oil economy arrives, there’s no guarantee that Saudi Arabia will have enough reserves to make it there If you want to learn more about the potential for Saudi Bankruptcy as a result of cheap oil, watch this video up top Or to find out who exactly controls the world’s oil, and why, check out this video below Thanks for watching Test Tube News, don’t forget to like and subscribe for new videos every day! 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Although Gulf-Asia crude oil-centered interdependence is here to stay for the foreseeable future and Asia Pacific oil demand will undoubtedly play an outsized role in the economic recovery and fortunes of Middle East oil-exporting countries, the near-term outlook is nonetheless clouded with uncertainty. The first two of these are finite in supply but – for better or worse – have powered the global economy and made the lands in which they are found, for the most part, fabulously rich. The middle east countries should focus on different sources other than relying on oil economy. Middle East Economist John Sfakianakis talks about the potential effects of Iran's re-entry into global oil markets, Saudi Arabia's peg to the U.S. dollar, and the potential for a Saudi Aramco IPO. I first landed in the Middle East on October 6, 1973, arriving in Beirut during the chaotic outbreak of the fourth modern Middle East war. What Is Life Really Like In Catalonia, Spain? Algeria needs the price of Brent crude, an international benchmark for oil, to rise to $157 dollars a barrel. This will most probably continue and force the West to formulate a “negative strategy” that would focus more on risks rather than opportunities. Snapshot 1. The era of global oil demand growth will come to an end in the next decade, but a rapid decline is unlikely without a large shift in government policies, according to the newly-launched World Energy Outlook 2020, the International Energy Agency’s flagship publication Proliferation. Did they use oil revenue to form socially legitimate governments? Most recent answer. What Does It Take To Fix A Failing U.S. School? The law number 5846 on Intellectual and Artistic Works is %100 applicable on all the material published on this news portal. What’s Going on in Sri Lanka? 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