Future Gas Production in Russia: Is the Concern about Lack of Investment Justified? The Russian government aims to increase the domestic price level in the long term. These differences disappear in the second case where traders are introduced. The objective of this paper is to analyse the long-term effects of higher gas prices in Russia on the European gas market. Total sales declined to 1.6 trillion rubles in the quarter, versus 1.9 trillion over the same period of 2018. Lecture Notes prepared for the UNSW Workshop, This paper, by James Henderson, concludes that Russian domestic gas prices are not likely to reach European netback levels any time soon, but that the momentum of the past five years towards significantly higher domestic prices will continue, leading to an eventual liberalization of the Russian gas market. In doing so, the paper identifies the objectives of the EU as the importer whilst trying to align them with the objectives of the Russian Federation as the exporter, in the current political context. Available at: on both economic and environment indicators. the incremental cost approach to identify the cost-effective part of the potential. Gas (gasoline, fuel, petrol) prices in Russia. The main policy implication of our study is that the EU and Russia have common interest in supporting further integration of European markets, although for somewhat different reasons. OECD Etaxes. GAS PRICE WARS. The Recently, the Russian government has considered reducing export taxes on crude oil and oil products compensated by an increase in the royalty on crude oil. In this paper we use both theoretical and numerical tools to study potential effects on Russian gas exports from different Russian domestic gas prices and production capacities in 2015. A model of successive oligopoly is applied to the European natural gas market. regarding the energy balance and national road map of natural gas infrastructure in the domestic market and on sales to Russia’s neighboring countries. Natural gas is a clean energy source with many benefits and its proportion in the energy consumption structure in China has been gradually increasing over the recent years. In the cases where CGE models have enlightened the policy debate, the reasons have to do with one or more of the following: (i) consistency between results from CGE models and other types of analysis (for instance in the debate on NAFTA); (ii) the fact that the CGE models captured particular features of the economy, such as some structural rigidities and institutional constraints, that rules of thumb, based on simpler analysis failed to capture; or (iii) CGE models provided a consistent framework to assess the linkages and tradeoffs among different policy packages. It emphasizes recent trends from empirical studies that have been published after 2000. In addition to the static–dynamic dimension, it is useful to distinguish between single-country, multi-country and global models. Russian government sanctioned the first gas trade at the Saint-Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPIMEX) in 2012 as a part of the gas industry national strategy. Gas prices on the open market will be some $45 to $50 per 1,000 cubic meters in Russia by 2010, Valery Yazev, the head of the Russian gas association, declared at a news conference in Moscow. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. (iii) Furthermore, increases in energy costs can result in higher mark-ups in some markets because of less competition resulting from firms' exit. Ukraine's interim government says it will raise gas prices for domestic consumers by 50% in an effort to secure an IMF aid package. Sources： [47] Leakage rates (%) c Fig. Overall, the elimination of the implicit domestic gas subsidy by increasing the regulated domestic gas price has a positive welfare effect in Russia. We test the consistency of gas futures and spot prices for unbiasedness. Second, due to the high concentration of traders, prices are distorted more by market power in trading than in production. model the impact on poverty,inequality and welfare of the elimination of taxes on agricultural exports and imports combined with a change in the domestic tax rate. The average value for Russia during that period was 48.09 Russian Rouble with a minimum of 47.19 Russian Rouble on 18-Jan-2021 and a maximum of 48.79 Russian Rouble on 19-Apr-2021. This study presents a modification of a levelised cost of energy (LCOE) model with cost separation coefficients based on Ginter triangles. amount of net gas imports (86 bcm) and domestic gas production (25 bcm) covered a gas consumption of 84 bcm and an estimated increase of 27 bcm in gas storages in the EU. That supposed to be a vital element of transition from the government price regulation to SPIMEX benchmark for over-the-counter (OTC) segment. Results based on National Petroleum Council scenarios are presented. Thus the mode has been calibrated and the likely impact of trade liberalization on import competing industries of Ethiopia and its impact on different household of Ethiopia has been examined. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-12/putin-set-to-discuss-ending-gazprom-s-monopoly-on-lng- General plan for development of the gas sector Available at: http://www.energyland.info/library-show-2928. Nevertheless, Gazprom was supported by the 5% higher top line of its oil subsidiary Gazprom Neft, thanks to strong refining performance. In the most positive, diversification of exports will be possible. In fact, Russia may struggle to carry out its current long-term export commitments if domestic prices are sufficiently low. We find that Cournot competition in both markets is the most accurate representation of today's European natural gas market, where suppliers at both stages generate a mark-up at the expense of the final customer (double marginalization). If oligopolistic trading cannot be prevented, vertical integration should not be discouraged, especially if it would increase the number of traders. Thus, the gas price at the National Balancing Point (NBP) trading platform dropped to $77.7 per thousand cubic meters on Monday, March 30. The World Bank, mimeo, Russia's economy is $4.2 trillion as measured by its 2018 gross domestic product. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. The large budget and foreign exchange reserves, a free … Firstly, climate policies promoting low-carbon energy are not neutral, since different regions, sectors or countries are affected disproportionally. In addition, the Oil Fund abolition would undermine policies to promote alternative green energy, particularly the use of ethanol. The reason for the low price was an excess of supply on the market, caused by rising competition from liquified natural gas (LNG). As in many other developing countries, Indonesian pricing policies have multiple objectives, including generation of government revenue, security of supply for the domestic market, and other social objectives. Sixty percent of the production is sold domestically at prices below long term marginal cost, for households and for industrial producers. Available at: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_166202/, MPSGE: A User's Guide. We compare three possible market scenarios: Cournot competition in both markets, perfect competition in both markets, and perfect competition in the downstream with Cournot competition in the upstream market (EU liberalization). However, even after a long history of LNG shipment since the late 1950s, LNG market is still regional with high spreads between countries and terms of delivery. Taking the resource tax as the core means of indium resource management, strategies to prevent international disputes concerning the selection of raw materials for trade are discussed, and new analytical insights and directions are provided, which can be applied to similar issues for other metals. The price Europe pays for Russian gas fell to its lowest level in 15 years, according to Russian national gas company Gazprom’s accounts released Tuesday. Russia has long capped domestic natural gas prices, a practise left over from the Soviet era. Three policy recommendations are that EU policy should (1) more explicitly acknowledge the interdependence between Russia and Europe; (2) not push Russia towards unified gas pricing; and (3) not take for granted any increase in Russian exports flowing to Europe. This paper analyzes how the supply side of the Western European natural gas market may react if the demand side becomes competitive. For comparison, the average price of electricity in the world for that period is 0.138 U.S. Dollar per kWh for households and 0.124 U.S. Dollar for businesses. The modelling outcomes demonstrate cost competitiveness of gas based CHP technology and provide valuable information to assist decision making for the management of the energy sector in Russia. Exports to Europe and countries outside the former Soviet bloc were down by 37% annually, with the price of natural gas averaging $169.80 per thousand cubic meters, down from $250.80 last year. If dual pricing is considered as a policy to reduce conventional air pollutants, it is more than economically justified in Russia on the basis of avoided health risks. Its introductory level distinguishes it from other available books and articles on CGE models. In turn, the supply side has responded. Russian gas price reform and the EU–Russia gas relationship: Incentives, consequences and European security of supply, A large-scale linear complementarity model of the North American natural gas market. Large redistributive impacts can arise from specific mechanisms to recycle revenues. In assessing the use of models in policy, it is important to distinguish between stylized and applied models. The main findings are: (i) substituting carbon taxes for labour taxes can yield a strong double dividend in Russia; however, welfare gains strongly depend on the labour supply elasticity and elasticities of substitution between capital, labour, and energy. into four alternative sectors. To make a reasonable conclusion, we supplement the simulation by relevant qualitative analysis of liquidity, price differentials between contracts, and market concentration in the exchange. Today or not today: Deregulating the Russian gas sector, Chapter 24 CGE Modeling of Environmental Policy and Resource Management, Russian gas exports have potential to grow through 2020, Rhetoric Versus Reality: Russian Threats to European Energy Supply. While scarcity of gas reserves may not be an issue for Russia in the medium term, it could become more important in the future. Die Analyse der Transformation der ungarischen Volkswirtschaft. To make matters worse, sales of Russian-sourced energy have recently slumped while export figures, which began to drop sharply in the autumn of 2018, keep reflecting downward tendency. According to this agreement, Russia will supply 30 billion cubic metres of gas to China over 30 years via the future Altai pipeline, which will connect Asian and European gas markets. It would also signal the unbundling of Gazprom and an end to the artificially low price of gas to the domestic consumer. February 24-27, 2004. (ii) Under the assumption of a Cournot oligopoly with homogenous products and symmetric firms in the markets for natural gas, petroleum and chemical products, metals, and minerals, welfare costs of the environmental tax reform can be higher than under perfect competition. For comparison, the average price of gasoline in the world for this period is 110.29 Russian Rouble. is intervened. Under a price elasticity of demand equalling -0.5, a 70% increase in the domestic gas price in Russia results in an annual average reduction in domestic gas consumption of 116. bcm. Russian domestic natural gas prices are now at around $45 per 1,000 cubic meters, or just one-fifth of the level paid by export customers in Europe. The business as usual (BAU) scenario is designed according to several forecasts about China by 2030, followed by six policy scenarios, including different levels of carbon tax and technological progress as well as their combinations. As we observed, the theoretical tax rate for the indium resource tax fluctuated between 0.67% and 15.53%, and the alternative tax rate for the indium resource tax ranged from 0.32% to 13.03%. 8867477;from=61577-0, Modeling Russia's economy in transition. Downloadable! While the pipeline sector remains to be in the hands of large corporations and a subject of strategic interstate and international agreements, or LNG provides more diversity and flexibility of trade. The physical and mathematical models have been formulated according to the analysis and generalization of experimental data that describe complex jointly proceeding thermal and thermal chemical processes (inert heating, evaporation of water, thermochemical interaction of the latter with carbon coke, thermal decomposition of the organic part of coal particle ignition of WCF) in the induction period of time. Russia, September 2020: The price of electricity is U.S. Dollar per kWh for households and U.S. Dollar for businesses which includes all components of the electricity bill such as the cost of power, distribution and taxes. In this equilibrium net prices differ across markets. Moreover, a hypothetical replacement of export taxes and royalties with a pure rent tax is analysed. Available at: http://www.energyland.info/library-show-2928, accessed This paper studies the reform of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). declining existing supply, increasing potential supply, and energy substitution This analysis also defines the competitiveness of corporate business model under conditions of asymmetric information, regional gas markets, deregulation trends, fast-growing production technologies and downstream infrastructure (specifically in LNG sector). We study profit maximizing Cournot producers facing an ideal third party access regime for gas transport. Nevertheless, Gazprom was supported by the 5% higher top line of its oil subsidiary Gazprom Neft, thanks to strong refining performance. The modified LCOE model is applied to a regional case study (Moscow, Russia) providing a comparison of generation technology according to cost estimates for electricity and heat under regionally specific economic and technological conditions. To deal with this situation, the government has issued fiscal incentives of Presidential Regulation number 40 of 2016 on the Natural Gas Price Regulation. energy substitution in the electricity sector shows significant results based 754 from August 30, 2013. and3. (iii) Furthermore, increases in energy costs can result in higher mark-ups in some markets because of less competition resulting from firms' exit. Thus, it is important to prevent concentration in the downstream gas market. The economic cost of relying on existing Dichas practicas incluyen la prevision de los intercambios, en la cual 1) los pronosticos del crecimiento en diversos mercados, junto con la matriz de un periodo de base, resultan en una matriz de participaciones constantes para el periodo futuro, y 2) se modifica esta matriz de participaciones constantes para tener en cuenta a los factores que se espere que produzcan perdidas o ganancias en las participaciones. exploration causes natural gas imports to increase and the economy to slow Increased Competition on the Supply Side on the The main internal factors affecting China’s natural gas security will shift from the rudimentary natural gas pipeline construction and gas storage facilities construction to the low availability of natural gas and urbanization, which will increase the pressure on natural gas supply and demand. It compares the regional effects of alternative climate policies and discusses how to improve the performance. Russia has identified natural gas as a key strategic asset, and since 20 July 2006 Gazprom has had the exclusive right to export natural gas. General plan for development of the The Russian heat sector faces crucial problems including underinvestment, below cost pricing, generation capacity and infrastructure depletion. I show that the tax reform had little effect on the total amount of taxes imposed on producers, but changed its structure across the types of taxes. The eastern provinces, which also include Shanghai, Anhui and Fujian, have seven LNG import terminals … Studying the security status of China’s natural gas supply and proposing a feasible coping strategy for enhancing that security is of great significance. China's gas pricing is divided geographically due to differences in provincial economies, availability of pipeline gas imports from Central Asia, Russia and Myanmar, domestic gas production and infrastructure like LNG terminals, pipelines and storage facilities. Developing natural gas explorations is therefore required.   But the reserves are declining and prices have fallen. China’s natural gas comprehensive security index from 2006 to 2015 was between 0.627 and 0.740, and it is predicted to land between 0.669 and 0.759 from 2016 to 2025. The study shows that the abolition would lead to lower economic growth in the short run but a higher growth in the long run. One of the primary energy sources, natural gas is widely used for power generation, industrial production, transportation, commercial buildings, and households. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts of the Oil Fund abolition on Thailand's economy and energy efficiency using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Select city in Russia: Do you live in Russia? The present paper examines the macro- and microeconomic impacts of gas price adjustments in both the short and long term. With oil prices at five-year lows and Russia's ruble tumbling after them, Russia's Gazprom has once again drawn attention to the incredibly low gas prices it is forced to set on the domestic market. Gazprom in Figures 2009-2013. Overall, total gas consumption in Europe could decrease by 8.5 bcm annually. ... Turkey (Erdogdu, 2010), Italy (Fiorini and Sileo, 2013), Ukraine (Goncharuk, 2013a) or regions (Khatib, 2014). The paper presents the evolution of business models in the natural gas industry, focusing on the primary drivers as government regulation, production technologies, and regional markets trends on the way to liberalization and cointegration. AbstrakOptimalisasi pemanfaatan gas bumi untuk kebutuhan domestik terkendala oleh mahalnya harga gas yang sampai di tangan industri pengguna gas domestik. Gas sales. for the year 2014–2030. Energy is an important commodity in many economic activities. Pipeline gas imports from Russia increased by 3% year-on-year in Q3 2019 and those from Norway also increased slightly, by 1%. We use a pressure-state-response (PSR) analysis framework and the exponential weighting method to make a systematic evaluation of China’s natural gas security, predict the evolution of natural gas security combined with the GM(1,1) model, and use the obstacle degree model to diagnose the obstacles standing in the way of China’s optimum natural gas security. There are considerable differences between absolute-emission-reduction goals and intensity-based emission goals. 2020-04-26. Consequently, this study recommends one optimal natural gas consumption structure scenario to policy governors given its comprehensive effectiveness in promoting sustainable development in China according to horizontal and vertical comparative analyses. Putin calls to phase out Gazprom monopoly on LNG export Available at: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-12/putin-set-to-discuss-ending-gazprom-s-monopoly-on-lng- exports Trading in the downstream European gas market: a successive oligopoly approach. An alternative abatement possibility is expensive and unlikely enforceable, due to weak environmental regulation. Both have been used in policy debates, but there are important differences in their uses, particularly in their domain of applicability. The optimal two-part tariff would double Gazprom's annual profits in Europe, but it involves significant long-term risks for Gazprom of lost market share. into four alternative sectors. And as domestic gas prices increase, efficiency investments will become increasingly economic – not to mention the incentive for Gazprom to enhance its efficiency against a backdrop of high European gas prices. Optimizing the utilization structure in a scientific manner can be regarded as the significant means to increase natural gas consumption in order to achieve the targets upon 2020 and 2030. The objective of the paper is to analyse the economy-wide effects of this proposal. The model has a two-level structure, in which Cournot producers are also Stackelberg leaders with respect to traders, who may be Cournot oligopolists or price takers. This article first describes the new literature in environmental economics on the so-called "double-dividend" and then explores its implications for a broad range of economic issues. To fill this gap, this study develops a new multi-country multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, with detailed energy disaggregation. These losses can be offset to some extent by using revenues (if any) from the environmental programs to reduce existing taxes on labor This same line of analysis applies to many programs and institutions in the economy that mise the cost of living: tariffs and quotas on imports, agricultural price-support programs, monopoly pricing, programs of occupational licensure that limit entry, and many others. The dependence of the coal-water fuel (WCF) particles ignition delay time has been determined experimentally in this work. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling is an attempt to use general equilibrium theory as a tool for analysis of resource allocation and income distribution issues in market economies. Trading in the downstream European gas market: a successive The greater or lesser intensity of that growth will depend on the evolution of both production and internal consumption. of Gazprom’s treasury shares, which brought Gazprom's net profit in line with expectations. Binding infrastructure capacity restrictions strongly influence the results, and we identify bottlenecks mainly for intra-European trade relations whereas transport capacity in the upstream market is globally sufficient in the Cournot scenario. Previously, however, the modeling of these linkages in GTAP has been incomplete. When large countries have an objective of constant food domestic prices, in the event of an increase in world agricultural prices the optimal response is to decrease, I analyze the system of taxes imposed on the Russian oil sector before and after the tax reform of 2002. Hot-rolled sheet Hot-rolled sheet offer prices for May from Severstal were heard at 92,000 roubles … Domestic gas prices in Russia are substantially lower than export netback prices. Hence, to increase government revenues, the gas-price reform could be supplemented by an increase in the capital income tax in the gas sector. A thorough assessment of domestic consumption, production and investment volumes however reveals that Russian supply will have difficulties in matching growing domestic and European demand. It then suggests an approach for GTAP which incorporates some of these desirable features of energy substitution. Berlin. Die Analyse der Transformation der ungarischen Volkswirtschaft. Developing natural gas explorations is therefore required. Nevertheless, the most efficient revenue-recycling policy would be to invest in the energy efficiency of buildings, which have the largest energy savings potential in Russia. Additionally, the impacts under the same scenario are significantly different among 4 regions. The current paper examines implications of Russia increasing its gas exports capacity by building Nord Stream 2 (to Germany), Turkish Stream (to Turkey and Greece) and Power of Siberia (to China). Bloomberg, 2013. on the economy. Federal Law No.117 from July 18, 2006. 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